Kamala Harris is trailing behind the polling performance of Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton as she faces off against President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. As of August 31, 2024, Real Clear Polling (RCP) shows Harris leading Trump by just 1.8 points nationally.
This margin is significantly smaller than the 4.6-point lead Clinton held in 2016 and the 6.3-point advantage Biden had in 2020 at the same point in their campaigns.
The narrow gap between Harris and Trump is raising alarms among Democrats, especially given Trump’s ability to outperform poll predictions in past elections. In 2016, Trump won the presidency despite trailing in the polls, and in 2020, he came close to defeating Biden in several key swing states.
RCP’s Electoral College projections show Harris with only a two-vote lead over Trump, emphasizing the precariousness of her position. With swing states playing a critical role in determining the outcome, Harris’s slim national lead may not be enough to secure a victory.
Critics have also pointed to Harris’s limited media appearances as a potential factor in her weaker polling numbers. So far, she has participated in just one major interview as the Democratic nominee, where she tried to downplay her previous policy reversals. However, her ranking as the most left-leaning Senator in 2019 continues to be a sticking point for many voters.
As the campaign heads into the final months, Harris will need to close the polling gap and build momentum if she hopes to avoid the same pitfalls that plagued Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
