More than 15 million Americans have already voted in the 2024 presidential election, with early voting showing positive signs for Republicans in key battleground states. According to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, 5 million voters have participated in early in-person voting, and 10 million have submitted mail-in ballots. With 56 million mail-in ballot requests still outstanding, a large wave of voting is expected in the final days.
In swing states like Arizona and Nevada, Republicans are making early gains by engaging low-propensity voters—those who have either not voted or have participated sporadically in previous elections. This group of voters could be pivotal in determining whether President Donald J. Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris takes the White House. In Arizona, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in terms of early ballots returned, signaling strong GOP momentum in the state.
Nevada is showing similar trends, with Republicans gaining ground, especially among less consistent voters. Although Democrats have a slight lead in mail-in ballots, the Republican push among low-propensity voters could close that gap as Election Day draws near.
Pennsylvania, another critical state, is seeing slower turnout, especially among Democrats. Democratic absentee ballot requests are down by approximately 1.2 million compared to 2020, while Republicans have only seen a modest drop of about 250,000. This decline in Democratic participation could give Republicans an edge in the state.
As early voting continues, Republicans appear to be gaining ground, setting up a potentially favorable landscape for the GOP as the final days of the election approach.
