Poll: Trump’s Lead Over Biden Would Grow If Convicted

The common wisdom among Democratic operatives and the mainstream media appears to have been that a criminal conviction in any of four ongoing trials would essentially doom Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump’s bid for a second term in the White House.

A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, however, shows that Trump not only maintains a commanding lead over President Joe Biden, but his advantage would actually grow if he is convicted on what he and most of his supporters believe are politically motivated charges.

In a head-to-head rematch of the 2020 general election, Trump beat Biden by a 53% to 47% margin in the recent poll. He maintained the six-point advantage — 48% to 42% — when respondents were asked to choose a candidate if the election were held on the day they were being polled.

Apparently reflecting the widespread belief that a federal case related to Trump’s actions ahead of the Jan. 6, 2021, protest on Capitol Hill is aimed at derailing his presidential campaign, he expanded his lead over Biden to eight points — 54% to 46% — in a hypothetical scenario in which he is found guilty of inciting an insurrection.

Pollsters also asked which candidates respondents would support in the event that Trump is convicted in Georgia on election interference charges being pursued by embattled Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.

Although the margin decreased slightly in response to that question, Trump still came out ahead of Biden, 52% to 48%.

More than half of all respondents — 54% — shared the belief that the charges against Trump are politically motivated and an even larger majority — 58% — agreed that Democrats are using the justice system as a partisan tool.

While Trump is closer than ever to clinching his third straight GOP presidential nomination after his victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, he is still technically facing challenger Nikki Haley, who vowed that she would remain in the race despite the recent defeat in her home state.

In the same poll, participants were asked to choose between Haley and Biden in a hypothetical match-up, and the incumbent came out ahead by a slim 41% to 39% margin, though nearly one-fifth of the respondents declined to make a selection.