Gold surges to unprecedented levels, reaching $3,237.98 per ounce in April 2025, as trade tensions create a perfect storm for precious metals while jewelers and bullion dealers struggle to meet soaring consumer demand.
At a Glance
- Gold hit an all-time high of $3,237.98 per ounce on April 11, 2025, driven by US-China trade tensions and demand for safe-haven assets
- The price surge has benefited both jewellery and bullion markets, with the UK jewellery industry projected to grow to $7.76bn by 2030
- J.P. Morgan maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting prices to reach $2,950/oz by Q4 2025
- Consumers increasingly view gold as both a fashion statement and tangible investment amid economic uncertainty
- Gold prices have increased 22.51% since the beginning of 2025 and are projected to reach $3,406.79 within 12 months
Trade Tensions Fuel Gold’s Historic Rise
The precious metals market witnessed unprecedented activity in early 2025 as gold prices surged to record highs amid escalating US-China trade tensions. On April 11, gold reached $3,237.98 per ounce before retreating slightly to $3,220 following President Trump’s announcement of tariff exemptions for smartphones, electronics, and computers from China.
This exemption provided only temporary relief as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated these goods, along with semiconductors, might face separate tariffs within a month, maintaining market uncertainty.
The tariff situation has intensified significantly, with the U.S. raising duties on Chinese goods to 145%, prompting Beijing to respond by increasing tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%. These retaliatory measures took effect in early April, contributing to the precious metal’s 22.51% price increase since the beginning of 2025.
Market analysts now project gold to trade at $3,278.30 by the end of the current quarter and reach $3,406.79 within 12 months, reflecting continued confidence in gold’s upward trajectory.
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Jewellery Market Transformation
The UK jewellery industry stands poised for substantial growth, with projections indicating expansion to $7.76 billion by 2030 at an annual growth rate of 5.1% from 2025. This growth reflects a fundamental shift in consumer attitudes toward gold jewellery, which is increasingly viewed as both a fashion statement and a tangible investment. The psychological impact of rising gold prices has enhanced the perceived value of gold jewellery, with consumers now considering the long-term value retention of their purchases in addition to aesthetic appeal.
“We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold. From a macro perspective, a universal tariff scenario would likely supercharge the broad price effects for precious metals. Boosted economic growth concerns and higher inflation risks could continue to fuel strong investor demand for gold.”, said Natasha Kaneva.
A notable trend in the jewellery sector is the growing consumer preference for sustainable and ethically sourced pieces. Retailers are responding by featuring designs incorporating recycled materials and responsibly mined gemstones.
This shift aligns with broader consumer values around sustainability while providing additional justification for the premium prices commanded by fine jewellery in a market where raw material costs continue to climb. These ethical considerations have become major selling points for jewellers targeting conscientious consumers.
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Bullion Market Adaptations
Bullion dealers have implemented innovative strategies to meet surging demand despite supply constraints. Many retailers now offer fractional gold coins and expanded online purchasing options, making gold investment more accessible to average consumers who previously might have found the market prohibitively expensive. Digital sales platforms have democratized access to precious metals investments, allowing smaller investors to participate in the gold market with minimal entry barriers. This technological advancement has broadened the investor base considerably.
“Gold looks well situated to hedge the elevated levels of uncertainty around the macro landscape as the Trump administration announces new executive policy initiatives over the coming weeks and months, including tariffs.”, said Gregory Shearer.
The UK market faces unique challenges as significant quantities of gold have been transferred to New York, causing local shortages and delivery delays. This physical movement of gold reflects global realignment of precious metals reserves in response to shifting economic power centers and trade dynamics.
Central bank purchases, particularly from China, which resumed gold buying in late 2024, have further tightened supply. J.P. Morgan analysts maintain that gold continues to function effectively as a hedge against political uncertainty, showing strength in both falling and rising yield environments.
Investment Outlook
Gold’s appeal as an investment vehicle has intensified in 2025, with approximately 40% of global gold supply directed toward investment purposes. The metal’s traditional role as a safe haven during political and economic uncertainty has been magnified by current trade tensions and currency concerns.
ETF holdings and futures positioning remain key factors influencing gold prices, with institutional investors increasing allocations to the precious metal. Analysts are particularly focused on potential currency devaluation in China as a factor that could further boost gold demand.
“Under a more disruptive path for policy, we see gold, which does not carry the same tariff risks that other industrial-linked commodities do, continuing to perform as a debasement and inflation hedge despite higher yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.” Gregory Shearer added.
Market participants are currently anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech for insights on potential interest rate cuts, which could further influence gold prices. With J.P. Morgan forecasting a quarterly average gold price of $2,950 per ounce by Q4 2025, the outlook remains strongly positive despite short-term fluctuations.
For conservative investors seeking stability in uncertain times, gold continues to demonstrate its enduring value as both an adornment and a financial safeguard against economic turbulence.
