With tensions building across the Indo-Pacific, a new concern is emerging — whether U.S. bases once thought to be out of range could be among the first struck in a Chinese military assault. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has sounded the alarm, and retired military analysts are now pointing to vulnerabilities on U.S. soil.
Cotton, speaking about his new book, warned that the United States may be underestimating the risk of sudden action by the Chinese military. He argued that frequent incursions into Taiwan’s airspace have created a false sense of normalcy, masking preparation for an eventual attack.
Will Guam Be America’s Next Pearl Harbor?
Donald Trump’s neocolonial foreign policy could invite a surprise Chinese attack on an underprepared American island in the South Pacific.https://t.co/uMUsbwz0xL
— That is China (@That_isChina) March 24, 2025
Increased activity around Japan’s islands has added to fears that China’s military is stress-testing regional defenses. Cotton said this pace of operations drains allied resources and could leave their forces less able to respond to a real crisis.
Military observers are also warning that China could go beyond the regional theater. One analysis laid out how U.S. forces stationed in Pearl Harbor or even California might not be as protected as previously believed. The report suggested that cruise missiles could be launched from disguised container ships or submarines, exploiting blind spots in current security protocols.
Container ships carrying missile tubes could blend into commercial traffic and get close to ports before launching. The tactic, while unproven in combat, is considered plausible due to China’s access to a massive merchant fleet. Thousands of Chinese-controlled or Chinese-flagged vessels operate globally, providing potential launch platforms.
Drone warfare poses an additional risk. Smaller, unmanned systems can be outfitted with explosive payloads and sent in swarms. Some drones could be hidden in port areas or near runways, and triggered remotely or by timer.
Cotton said that Taiwan and Japan are likely aware of the stakes, but U.S. planners must prepare for the possibility that China’s ambitions extend farther than many assume. He called the threat “pervasive” and warned that it already affects national security.
China’s growing space surveillance capabilities add to the challenge. With hundreds of satellites monitoring sea and land, Chinese forces could coordinate a precision strike with little warning.
