James Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist, is sounding the alarm for Democrats who may be too confident about Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances in the 2024 election. During an interview on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” Carville reminded Democrats that President Donald Trump has a track record of outperforming his polling averages, particularly in critical battleground states.
Carville warned that even if Harris holds a slight lead in national polls, Trump’s strength in key states could still give him an advantage in the Electoral College. “President Trump runs, he overperforms his polling averages,” Carville said, highlighting that in both 2016 and 2020, Trump performed better than polls predicted, leading to unexpected victories and close finishes in swing states.
The strategist also pointed out that Harris would need to win the popular vote by a larger margin than typically required to overcome the built-in advantages Trump has in the Electoral College. Carville stressed the importance of staying focused and realistic, urging Democrats not to get “giddy” about early polling that may not fully capture the dynamics of the race.
Carville’s warning aligns with concerns raised by other Democratic voices, including CNN’s Van Jones, who noted that the race remains tight despite Harris enjoying weeks of positive media coverage. With the election approaching, Carville’s advice serves as a reminder that Trump’s ability to outperform expectations makes him a formidable opponent. Democrats will need to stay vigilant and avoid underestimating Trump’s appeal in key battleground states.
